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Run, Barack, Run

After a weekend featuring a David Brooks (moderate conservative) nytimes column under the above title, a full-hour appearance on Charlie Rose, and a soft proclamation on Meet The Press announcing his intention to, well, at least no longer deny his possible candidacy, the spectre of a 2008 presidential bid for first term Illinois Senator Barack Obama has suddenly become very real.

So far laying very low and far in the background, Obama's view of the landscape must have changed dramatically upon the unexpected and mysterious drop-out of former Virginia governor Mark Warner, widely viewed as the only viable Hillary-alternative in the party. All of the political space Warner had so meticulously marked out and wrested away from Clinton was suddenly thrown open, waiting to be occupied. Gore and Kerry (and Edwards?) notwithstanding, the path through the party primary suddenly became much clearer.

But is this country ready to elect a black president? Speaking entirely from the gut, I don't believe racism can any longer single-handedly sink a General Election campaign in the US. But the missed point is that it doesn't matter. Let's remember: Of Late, America doesn't elect presidents; Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida do. The South's going to vote Republican, whomever the respective major party nominees are. Independent swing voters in battleground states are the votes that matter, and I don't believe that group votes their prejudices.

But anyway, that's assuming we still must irresistibly face the same red/blue 51%/48% electoral map ad infinitum, a landscape picture that seems increasingly outdated everyday. Karl Rove's America is rapidly fading, and as I'm sure every two-bit political operative in Washington that gets within earshot is telling Obama, this is an historically singular electoral moment. Presidential races simply do not get this wide open. There is a wildly unpopular two-term president on the way out, creating broad opposition opportunity for any Democratic candidate; with the vice-president a non-factor, there is no name-brand incumbency to overcome; all other Democratic candidates are, to some degree, "old news". Mr. Obama, at 45 years old, with just two years in Washington and without foreign policy exposure, remains short on experience, his most glaring shortcoming and the grounds upon which his candidacy would surely be attacked. Despite all that, it's hard to imagine a more opportune array of political circumstance coming together than what's emerging right now.

There has been a veritable avalanche of press and momentum this week building toward a campaign, and to some degree the hype must always run ahead of the reality. This is all awfully quick for a man two years removed from the Illinois State Senate, maybe too quick. Perhaps the flames are indeed being fanned by Republicans confident they can easily beat an inexperienced Obama campaign with the hugely popular John McCain. Perhaps this is just positioning for a John Edwards type run for the Vice Presidency, on what would be an exciting Clinton/Obama ticket. Whatever the precise vector of these forces, their possible outcomes are fascinating to imagine.

Imagine going from George W Bush to Barack Obama. Imagine the instantaneous about-face in the international perception of the US. Imagine a mid-forties Kennedy-esque black man, daper and goodlooking, stepping off Airforce One and striding across the tarmacs of Europe as US president. Imagine the crowds of screaming fans that would everywhere greet him as a rock star. Imagine the spectacle of his first trip to Africa. Imagine a president that across the world creates an excited buzz of positive energy in his wake.

the sporting life

Baseball Playoffs



Another Oakland ALDS Lead

So the A's are up 2-love in another ALDS, we've been here before, right? In any series, to win the first two games on the road is too much to hope for, an amazing gift, by definition more than enough. But even after the miracle of beating the searing Johan Santana at home in Game 1 (his first home loss all year), today's game 2 was more must-win for the A's than one might think.

Even after winning those first two in New York in 2001, it was still necessary to win Game 3. Because Game 4 had "A's Loss" written all over it before the series even began; Cory Lidle had himself a nice little season that year as a fourth starter, but facing a three-time defending championship lineup and going against the then still mysterious and powerful El Duque was obviously more than should have been handed to the cute little guy. The 9-2 blowout that ensued was glaringly predictable. And once a series has gone to a Game 5 in New York, it's hard to pick any but the home team.

And so this year; the spectre of Santana in Minneapolis in Game 5 looms over the entire series. This is a four game series for the A's, it's imperative they win it by then. Lose today, and you must win both in Oakland, and if any of the middle three games might favor the Twins, it's Friday's Game 3, and their veteran starter. Yes, Brad Radke has a broken shoulder and could melt down for an easy A's win, series over without a fuss. But if the former 20-win ace (in perhaps the final moments of his career) can pull it together, it's not hard to imagine him getting the best of Danny Haren. In which case, Game 4 suddenly becomes a life-or-death cage-match for the A's, riding on the health/stamina/gumption of young pseudo-ace Rich Harden.

Is he or isn't he? By all accounts boasting some of the best (cough) "stuff" in the league, we've been waiting for Harden to blossom into a dominating monster for a couple of seasons now, but this turned into yet another season he couldn't stay healthy for. Coulda-Woulda, Richie. So is he the team's future, or is he Mark Prior/Kerry Wood; super-talented, never healthy, never a factor? If Oakland loses on Friday, only an effective Harden can prevent yet another horrifying ALDS collapse, which is more tenuous a proposition than it really ought to be.

So after losing 9 straight games that could have put them into the ALCS, here come numbers 10-11-12, three more set points. And the longer it goes, the more problematic it gets.