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On Conventional Wisdoms...

A few words on a political canard of recent vintage that has proved irritatingly resilient.

During the George W Bush years, it became something of a conventional wisdom to say that, at its core, This is a Conservative Nation. Republicans, it was pointed out, had enjoyed a "strangle hold" on the White House for forty years, interrupted only by two moderate southern governors, Carter and Clinton. Nationwide membership in the two major parties had been trending Republican, and more Americans were comfortable describing themselves with the label "conservative" rather than "liberal". In fact, "liberal" had become a dirty word, avoided even by Democrats. 

After the Democrats enjoyed sweeping victories in the 2006 congressional elections, pundits cautioned us to remember that, still, This is a Conservative Nation, and Democrats needed to be careful of overreach. 

That this carefully cultivated myth still endures even in some mainstream corners of the media demands a quick reality check. 

First, that matter about the White House.

Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama. At first glance, that list does seem a bit Republican heavy. Upon some consideration, however, one realizes that Ford never won an election, and thus doesn't really count. And upon further consideration still, one realizes that the 2000 election, strictly in terms of measuring the relative political makeup of the country, counts as a win for the Democrats. After all, more Americans did vote for Al Gore than George W Bush.

So over the last 10 presidential elections, we then call 1972, '80, '84, '88, and '04 for red, and 1976, '92, '96, '00, and '08 for blue. By my count that's 5 to 5 - with 4 of the last 5 going Democrat. Not exactly a "strangle hold".

What about Congress, then?

This current congress is in place until 2011, so we'll use that date as our starting point. Over the 80 years prior, going back to 1931, the Senate has been majority Democrat for 55.5 years, to the Republicans' 22.5. And the House of Representatives? The House may be the more accurate indicator of our nationwide political makeup, offering as it does a more localized, fleshed-out detail of the political landscape, district by district. The House's numbers are even more dramatic, going to the Democrats for a staggering 64 of the past 80 years.

But 80 years, perhaps that's going back too far; after all, it is a bit unfair to Republicans to include the Great Depression, a time when capitalism itself hung in the balance. We'll limit our examination to rosier, easier times. Let's just consider the Republican's strongest period in a century, the last 25 years.

So, over the past quarter century - a period stretching from the height of the Reagan '80s, spanning two Presidents Bush, and including the Gingrich revolution in the House of Representatives - the Senate went majority Democrat 13.5 years to the Republican's 11.5, while the House split 13 years to 12 in favor of the Democrats.

For a Conservative Nation, we sure do vote Democrat a lot.